Tuesday, 10 June 2014

After a debate on Europe

I took part in a debate on Europe with a Danish, a German and a Spaniard. The moderator was Portuguese (I am Italian). We agreed that many socio-economic issues can only be solved (internalized) at the European level. I wish to present support for an (obvious) point I made during the debate: the existence of necessary common european policies must not weaken the fact that member states have to design policies and structural changes that address specific national issues. Take for example the labor markets. Here I present two figures for the countries represented in the debate plus France (I needed a sixth country to make the figure more symmetric and there is really pas d' Europe sans la France). The data start in 1998 and end 2014. The first figure shows the ratio of total employment over population (age between 15 and 74 years old). The second figure shows the share of those same workers by educational level attained. Just a few short comments. Italy has the lowest share of employed population. The lower Italian participation reflects the larger shadow economy but not only: women and young participation rates are very low relative to European standards. Certainly this is an important margin for the Italian economy. Now look at Portugal: participation is high (it declined strongly because of the crisis) but the labor force is relatively little educated (although there has been improvement). Spain employment-population rate followed the real estate bubble (here causality is easier to deduce) but has also slowly shifted its employed population towards highly educated workers. Denmark, the land of happiness (in the words of the Portuguese moderator), has an outstanding participation rate but the crisis appeared to have hit severely the labor market. Participation in France is a flat-line. Germany's participation was at par with France until 2005, then something changed, and participation started to increase (by 7-8 pp!) inexorably. 
(click to enlarge)


10 comments:

  1. On the result of the elections (by a British conservative thinker...): "Europe against the european" http://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerscruton/2014/06/03/europe-against-the-european/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. On the other side of the equation, another sovereignty problem...

      Portuguese population is projected to decline from 10.5 million today to 8,6 million until 2060. In my opinion, this is a best case scenario that neglects many negative feedbacks of a chronically depressed economy. As we see elsewhere, once expectations of a chronically depressed economy set in, migratory outflows become a cultural phenomenon, one that will become as hard to manage as the Gothic migrations were, for the Western Romans.

      Delete
  2. I will provide some context, to this Portuguese problem (of a poorly educated labor force. I hear that many public universities --- after the budget cuts of previous years --- have now huge liquidity problems. Following the decision of the Constitutional Court, some institutions are going to default on the payment of salaries to their own faculty.

    I conclude that as long as the creditors keep getting their dues on time, no one really cares about the sustainability of the Portuguese economy. The numbers (of uneducated labor force) speak for themselves, still the institutions that can do something about it are hampered by:

    1) liquidity problems;
    2) capital depreciation;
    3) human capital depletion (faculty is both shrinking and getting old).

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    ReplyDelete
  5. Getting ex boyfriend back after a breakup,I’m extremely happy that will are living together again. Am Maria 21yr from England, my boyfriend of a 4yr just broke up with me and am 30 weeks pregnant.I have cried my self to sleep most of the nights and don’t seem to concentrate during lectures sometimes I stay awake almost all night thinking about him and start to cry all over again.Because of this I end up not having energy for my next day’s classes ,my attendance has dropped and am always in uni and on time.Generally he is a very nice guy ,he ended it because he said we were arguing a lot and not getting along.He is right we’ve been arguing during the pregnancy a lot .After the break up I kept ringing him and telling him I will change.I am in love with this guy and he is the best guy I have ever been with.I’m still hurt and in disbelief when he said he didn’t have any romantic feelings towards me anymore that hurt me faster than a lethal syringe.He texts me now and then mainly to check up on how am doing with the pregnancy,he is supportive with it but it’s not fair on me, him texting me as I just want to grieve the pain and not have any stress due to the pregnancy.i was really upset and i needed help, so i searched for help online and I came across a website that suggested that Dr Unity can help solve marital problems, restore broken relationships and so on. So, I felt I should give him a try. I contacted him and he told me what to do and i did it then he did a spell for me. 28 hours later, my bf came to me and apologized for the wrongs he did and promise never to do it again. Ever since then, everything has returned back to normal. I and my bf are living together happily again.. All thanks to Dr Unity. If you have any problem contact Dr.Unity now and i guarantee you that he will help you.Email him at: Unityspelltemple@gmail.com ,you can also call him or add him on whats-app: +2348071622464.

    ReplyDelete
  6. This article is dedicated to the Doctor Osemu Okpamen. I have been married with my wife for 5 years and recently she broke up with me and it hurt me deeply when she told me to leave her alone and that she does not love me anymore when i was always faithful and honest to her. I tried all the ways to get her back buying her what she wants like i always did and she still left me heart broken and she even has a new boyfriend which destroyed me even more until a friend of mine from high school directed me to this genuine spell Doctor called Osemu Okpamen. This man changed my life completely. I followed everything he told me to do and my wife came back begging for me back. I was stunned everything happened exactly like he told me. I had faith in everything he told me and everything was true. Also he was there every moment until i got my happiness back and he also provides spells that cures impotence, bareness, diseases such as HIV/AID E.T.C You can contact him via email at { Doctorokpamenspelltemple@yahoo.com } or visit his website http://www.doctorokpamenspells.com. He will help you in anything you need and quick to answer once you contact him or call me for more info +1 (914)-517-3229.

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